NBA Economics 101: Welcome To Miami’s Universe

While contemplating the future of the NBA that the new CBA will usher in, a thought that occurred to me was that the NBA is doing everything it can to make player movement difficult. The owners are asking for add financial burden on bigger markets to prevent them from loading up on super stars as well as curtailing the earning power of players who want to change teams. It’s a well accepted notion that the steep demands of ownership stem from, at least in some way, the Miami Heat free agency heist from last summer. But will a stricter CBA ensure that the Miami Heat are perinatal favorites to win for the next decade? 

LeBron’s coup d’état during the summer of 2010 moved power out of ownership and squarely into the hands of players. LeBron dictated what teams came and serenaded him. He chose where he played and who he played with. His tour de force sent shock waves through the NBA.

Fans didn’t know how to react. Here’s a man exercising his freedom of choice. Breaking the shackles of common thought and building a super power in a way we hand’t seen before, through player’s choice. Many chose to hate him, partly for ‘The Decision’, but also for reasons we didn’t even know. 

Owners hated what they saw because they knew what was coming next. Players would learn from this and empower themselves. 

And as the story goes, the players did learn, they did arm themselves and some even pulled the trigger. Carmelo Anthony forced his way out of Denver and into the bright lights of the Mecca we call MSG. then out of no where, we heard Deron wasn’t happy in Utah. the Jazz took a proactive stance and traded their franchise player to save themselves from the mess Denver had stepped in. Utah got the ebst deal that they could, but was this the new NBA world we would have to live in? One where a team traded their franchise player in his prime out of fear they they would just up and leave anyway? Owners and fans braced themselves. Who was next? Chris Paul? Dwight Howard? J.R. Smith? You’re right, no one cares about J.R.

The owners decided they needed to end this before the NBA became a league with 4 All-Star teams and 26 Washington Generals. So came the lockout, the steep demands, the ugly negotiation sessions and missed games. 

So where do we stand now? Owners have asked for larger luxury tax penalties as well as a lower BRI split. The combination would ensure that most teams refuse to or simply can’t afford to pay multiple superstars without sacrificing quality in players 3 through 15. Teams have also discussed lowering both max salaries and the number of years a player can sign for. To add to that, owners want to add penalties for a player changing teams in free agency by having to take a major reduction in pay. Owners have even called for the inclusion of the ‘Melo Rule’. Such a rule “would prevent players from signing Bird rights extensions with teams that acquired them via trade after the July 1 in advance of their final season under contract” according to Tom Ziller of SB Nation. 

What would the future of the NBA would look like with all of these provisions in the new CBA? Dwight Howard wouldn’t be able to come to the Lakers unless he waited until he’s a free agent and signed for a huge pay cut. Chris Paul wouldn’t be able to force a trade to the Knicks. Blake Griffin isn’t going anywhere. Even the sweetheart Oklahoma City Thunder might not be together for much longer. Not unless OKC can figure out how to pay Westbrook and the impeding luxury taxes that would come with such an extension. 

Where does that leave the NBA? 

In Miami’s hands. Miami has already pulled off the greatest haul in free agency history. They already have their Big 3 and they are under the cap. No need to worry about extensions to their superstars or signing that would propel them into the upper atmosphere of the luxury tax. Miami is locked and loaded and if even half the CBA rumors are true, they are locked in for the term of the new CBA. 

Who would be able to compete with them? No team would be able to stack up to match them. Teams would have to figure out how to get better via trades and drafts. Free Agency might no longer be a viable option unless teams like Chicago and New York can find stars willing to sacrifice a greater amount of salary than we have ever seen before. 

Miami started this movement which in turn moved the owners into a position that would ensure that this type of player movement would never happen again. Ironically, locking the Heat into a position of power that no other team would be able to achieve again. 

Miami, this is now your world. At least until the next lockout. 

@Suga_Shane

Photo - Don’t know where I found this awesome photo. If it’s yours let me know and I’ll dole the credit. 

More NBA Economics 101 posts. 

While meeting with the owners, Stern pointed at Wade while making a comment, a source told Broussard. Wade felt as if Stern was belittling him and yelled at the commissioner.
“You’re not pointing your finger at me,” Wade said, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher. “I’m not your child.”

“Not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, but a 5-head.” - LeBron, probably. 

via @tomhaberstroh

@Suga_Shane

Chris Bosh gets married, Dwyane Wade dresses like a groom. 

Even when it’s supposed to be Chris’s night, one of the real superstars find a way to steal his thunder.

@Suga_Shane

cheers.

*mumble, grumble, mumble*

Game 5 Recap and Game 6 Preview: Giving Credit To Tyson Chandler. 

Tyson Chandler’s lone career accolade thus far has been making the NBA’s All-Defensive 2nd Team, which he accomplished this season. Throughout the course of his career, Tyson has played on four teams since getting drafted #2 overall in 2001. Along the way, his work has often gone unheralded or credited to the brilliance of teammates. I believe it’s time that we dole out some real credit to Chandler and the defensive intensity he’s delivered, regardless of the team and role he’s played for. 

When he played for New Orleans, the Hornets won 56 games and finished one game out of winning the West. Since they traded Chandler away, they haven’t won more than 49 games and haven’t advanced past the first round. When Chandler arrived in Charlotte, the Bobcats made their first ever playoff appearance. Then Michael Jordan dumped Tyson’s salary for the same amount of salary in a move that makes as much sense as Jordan’s taste in fashion. 

Dallas was the new team ready for Tyson’s defensive influence. For years, Dallas was labeled as a team with the propensity to choke. Most of their shortcoming came due to the fact that Dallas was a jump shooting team and relying on the inconsistent skill of scoring to win games can be disastrous — ask Mike D’Antoni and his Phoenix teams. 

Enter Tyson Chandler. 

His defense has been contagious and has allowed Dallas the ability to switch in and out of zone defense which has brought about staggering results for Dallas. Tyson’s ability to roam the middle and essentially act as an automatic double team on any superstar has been vital to Dallas’ drive towards the franchise’s first Larry O’Brein trophy. 

In Games 4 & 5, I watched how Tyson would rotate over in the key as the pass to LeBron James or Dwyane Wade was still in flight. The wall that he forms has been a deterrent for Miami, preventing them from driving into the key. On pick’n’rolls, Chandler has been able to flash onto the ball handler, preventing them from turning the corner and even forcing them to retreat back towards mid-court. This isn’t Mario Chalmers and Mike Bibby that Tyson is having to switch out on, this is LeBron and Wade we are talking about. Two of the most lethal perimeter players in the NBA. Two guys have never been stopped from getting to the rim yet this one mortal man has been able to do it. 

Never has Chandler’s effort as palpable as it was in the clutch moments of Game 5 when he stepped up to stop a Dwyane Wade drive to the basket. Wade dumped the ball of to LeBron, who was driving along the baseline from the corner. As LeBron got to the rack, he was met by none other than Tyson Chandler. LeBron went up, drew contact and his the layup. But the whistle wouldn’t be favorable for LeBron, much like it hasn’t gone his way all series. Chandler had drawn the charge and Dallas would go on to clinch game 5. 

So here we are, 5 games into the NBA Finals and Dallas leads 3-2 because they’ve been able to come up with huge stops late in games and no one deserves more credit or praise for that than Tyson Chandler. 

LeBron, on the other hand, has received ALL of the media’s attention. Justified or not, LeBron has been a bigger story line than the games themselves. For the first time since Michael Jordan, the NBA has a truly transcendent figure to market. I won’t draw any conclusions on whether this is a good or bad thing but it is now a thing. 

LeBron might be the only player in NBA history to drop a triple-double and have that game labeled as a bad game. TWICE! So let’s be clear here, LeBron had a “B” game. Nothing spectacular but not putrid either. In the fourth he had just two points and that’s what people are killing him over but LeBron also had 4 assists, 3 rebounds and a crucial block (which wasn’t credited as a block) on a Shawn Marion fast break which kept Miami in the game. 

Miami’s issue has been figuring out how to keep Wade and LeBron involved at the same time. According to ESPN Stats, LeBron was 4 for 6 with Wade out of the game and 4 for 13 with Wade in. Most of this is because the main ball handler is typically taking a pick and the other superstar is tucking themselves away in the furthest corner possible. When Wade and LeBron ran Pick’n’Rolls together, Dallas sent three defenders at them, putting two on the ball handler and having the third rotate over from the corner player to shadow the picker. This has giving Dallas time to recover without allowing the drive and gives Miami two bad options, a long shot or a though cross court pass to the opposite corner over a very tall Chandler or Marion. This defense has worked perfectly for Dallas. 

Now for my eight factors to Game 6.

1. No Rebounds, No Rings - Dallas got murdered on the glass again, but that’s part of their defensive strategy. Much like the Boston Celtics did this year, Dallas doesn’t put much effort into rebounds unless they are within reach. This allows them to get back on defense and setup quickly despite having an aging core that log heavy minutes. I don’t see this changing for game 6 considering how well Dallas’ defensive strategy has worked thus far. 

2. J.J. Barea - Mike Bibby should never play basketball again. He can’t defend, pass or shoot anymore. With that said, J.J. had his best game in Game 5, going for 17 points, 5 assists on 6 of 11 shooting including 4 of 5 from deep. Perhaps it’s time for Miami to play Chalmers every time J.J. is in the game. Mario, on the other hand, was also brilliant for Miami and should have played more than just 23 minutes, in which he logged 15 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists a steal and just 1 turnover. Speaking of turnovers…

3. Turnovers - Miami had 16 turnovers to Dallas’ 11. Dallas had 14 fast break points to Miami’s 11. Miami has to get out and run but, more importantly, they have to take care of the ball on their end. LeBron, Wade and Bosh had 4 turnovers each. That’s inexcusable. 

4. Odd Lineups - It almost seems like the magic of inserting Haslem and Miller is gone for Miami. In fact the only good lineup change that happened in game 5 was Wade getting hurt. It gave LeBron free reign during which he went 4 for 6 from the field and Miami outscored Dallas by 1 point. If you haven’t figured it out by now, this isn’t a good thing. Miami shouldn’t be worse with better players on the court and this responsibility falls on their head coach. He’s got to figure it out. For Dallas, they seem unstoppable when both JJ and Terry are feeling it. Ask the Lakers. 

5. Chandler, Marion and Cardinal - Cardinal? YES! Dallas even ran two plays for Brian. Have no fear, Dallas fans, Haywood is active for game 6. As for the other two, they have been brilliant on defense and Chandler has been key on Pick’n’Rolls on offense, giving Dallas a safety valve as he rolls to the basket, much like his days with Chris Paul in New Orleans. 

6. Like A Bosh - A stat that explains everything, via Zach Lowe of SI.com: Chris Bosh is averaging 0.53 points per possession on post-ups in this series, compared to 0.88 regular season. Again, Tyson Chandler deserves so much more credit than he is getting. Chris Bosh has been worse than LeBron, a lot worse. We just won’t grill him as much because LeBron’s been putrid. Another reason Chris wanted to come to Miami, he can stay out of the limelight when he plays bad. Chris needs to step it up and play at least a “B” game for Miami to win a ring.

7. Getting Dirk’d On - This play is pretty much all I need to show you:

Dirk is leap-frogging NBA legends left and right during these Finals. He went from a possible top 30 player to a solid top 20. Then he made another jump, becoming the third power forward that gets us to ask “Karl Malone and Charles Barkley who?” 

8. Free Throws - The free throw game was about even in game 5 and the refs haven’t been as bad as we all expected. In fact, that questionable call on LeBron might have actually been a great call. Part of the reason that a 3-point shooting team like Dallas is staying even (or even shooting more FTs) is because of the great defense Dallas has played. Once again, a nod to Tyson Chandler. 

Pivotal Game 6 is tonight, 8:00PM EST on ABC. Tune in to see if LeBron can go for 50 and still get criticized. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter. 

@Suga_Shane

LeBron, LOST and the NBA Finals. Game 4 recap and Game 5 preview. 

It’s all about LeBron James. Tonight, tomorrow, and everyday there is basketball until LeBron calls it quits. It always has been and it will always be like that. Wade can go for 60 tonight and we will still talk about how well or how awful LeBron played. That’s because LeBron James is the best player in basketball and we want and need him to play that way. 

If the NBA were a television show it would have to be J.J. Abrams’s LOST. David Stern would easily be Jacob, making all the rules and never having to be held accountable. Kobe would probably be John Locke, so ambitious at first only to die and return as a ruthless leader. Dirk would have to be Swayer, cool, savvy and those long blonde locks. The NBA title would be Kate, the girl everyone is after yet only one will win over. 

And LeBron? Well, I haven’t figured that one out yet. I’m stuck somewhere between Jack Shephard or The Island. They both sort of make perfect sense. The Island is this mysterious entity which has mythical powers. No one understands the Island and so little of it is refined. And every so often, the Island can vanish into thin air. 

Or perhaps, LeBron is more like Jack Shephard. The central figure of our show from the day he arrived. Willing to sacrifice his own well being to help others survive and succeed. Yet we aren’t sure if Jack has what it takes to lead the survivors. Jack’s not even sure if he has what it takes. Jack falters quite a bit before he becomes the hero. Jack’s final lesson is that he didn’t have to be a perfect leader or even one that took all the right actions. He just had to be one that took action. 

That’s what LeBron needs to learn if Miami wants to win this series. When things look bleak, LeBron can’t run to the baseline and hide. He can’t cloak himself by consistently walking into double teams. He can’t be passive and pretend he’s passing. That’s not facilitating, that’s self-deprecating. 

If LeBron doesn’t play like LeBron, nothing else will matter. Not the analysis, not the stats, not the Finals or the MVP. Love him or hate him, you know that the only thing that matters and the only thing that’s mattered since June 26th, 2003 has been whether or not LeBron James can one day become a basketball immortal. 

A quick rundown of Game 4 will tell you just how important a player LeBron is. Miami out rebounded Dallas, 44 to 41 including more offensive rebounds, 15 to 12. Miami was more efficient from the field, shooting 42.7% to Dallas’ 39.7%. Miami had less turnovers (13 to 11) and more assists (19 to 13) all while netting more steals (8 to 7) and blocks (5 to 2).The only real difference in this game was Free Throws, where Dallas, 24 of 30, killed Miami, who was 17 of 24.

If LeBron, who took only 11 shots in this game, goes to the hole 5 more times, I think Miami wins the free throw battle and most likely the game. It’s all about his effort and aggression right now. There were to jarring plays that I remember clearly that told me all I need to know about this game.

The first was a breakaway dunk by James during which he looked more than bored. In fact, it looked like he didn’t even want to dunk the ball. He begrudgingly leaped into the air and half-heartedly stuffed the ball through the rim. his facial expression looked as if he wished someone ran out on the break with him just so he can pass the ball off. 

The second came when LeBron dumped the ball off to a high-post on the elbow (I believe it was Udonis Haslem) and then took a beautiful cut to the basket. For no understandable reason at all, Dallas doubled the post and left LeBron streaking wide open to the rim. Haslem found James on the cut with a beautiful pass and then nothing else made sense. LeBron, who’s about 6’9”, 285 pounds and has a 45” vertical, decided not to dunk the ball. In fact, he didn’t even really attempt the layup, either. If anything, Miami was lucky that Dallas, who immediately regretted doubling off of James, attacked an idle James and fouled him one another half-hearted shot attempt. 

As for Dirk and Wade, who have both played at supernatural levels were no different in this game. Wade was everywhere on both sides of the ball and came up with some keep blocks to keep Miami in the game. Dirk, who was playing with a 101 degree fever, 21 points and 11 rebounds, including the game clinching lay-in at the end. You know, just typical Dirk stuff. 

Now for the nerdy portion of this post, the Eight Factors: 

1. No Rebounds, No Rings - Miami edged out Dallas last night but still lost. I don’t really think that can happen again for Dallas, who will need to control the boards if they want to control their own destiny. 

2. J.J. Barea - The little man got his first Finals start, went 3 for 9 and netted 8 points, 4 assists and 3 rebounds. Not a bad box score but he had a +/- of -7 for the game and missed a number of good looks at the rim. I’m guessing that Rick Carlisle, who’s been coaching the lights out in the playoffs, will be starting J.J. again since it worked out last game. Barea needs to convert those lay-ups that he creates with his speed or else he’s just useless out there. 

3. Turnovers - Remember when Jason Kidd was one of the best point guards to ever play? How does 0 points, 3 assists, 3 rebounds, 4 turnovers in 38 minutes sound? Kidd was a +12 for the game, highest of any player, so there is that. I know Kidd has been putting in a lot of good defensive minutes, especially on LeBron, but he has to be more careful with the rock. Miami did have a slight edge in fastbreak points, and this was without LeBron focused in. 

4. Odd Lineups - This matters not if LeBron decides to “check out” of the game. I like how Dallas countered with starting JJ and not playing Peja more that 15 seconds. For those of you keeping count, Mike Bibby might be the worst basketball player on the planet yet he still starts and logs 15 to 20 minutes a game. Come on, Spoelstra!

5. Chandler, Marion, Haywood - Miami outscored Dallas in the paint 40 to 38. It’s a slight advantage on paper that seems a lot bigger when you realize that LeBron didn’t attack the rim. Dallas is going to have to turn Wade into a jump shooter the same way they have done to LeBron. Put a small defender on him and dare him to drive only to have Chandler or Marion rotate over early and cut of the drive before it gets clsoe to the paint. 

6. Like A Bosh - I don’t care to talk about Bosh much but I heard Jon Barry on the Jim Rome show this morning assert that there 20 other guys that can do what Bosh does. He then went on to name all one of them.

I’m sure there are guys who can do what Bosh does, sort of. What Bosh does regularly, sure, a lot of guys average the same stats. but what Bosh can do and what he has done? I don’t think there are more than five guys who can do what Chris has done. See, Bosh was one of the 10 best players in the game just 12 months ago and it’s silly to pretend he wasn’t just because he moved to South Beach. For a guy who averaged 25 and 12 to take a limited role and still put up All-Star worthy numbers and to still be ready to perform like a #2 or even a #1 on some nights (see Chicago series) is almost unheard of. Kevin Garnett comes to mind, maybe Lamar Odom. That’s about it. I don’t think people realize the value of sacrificing and yet being ready to perform. 

With that said, Bosh is going to have to play better than he has in these finals. His shooting is off and his rebounding can improve. Especially if LeBron continues to sturggle. 

7. Getting Dirk’d On - Dirk is one glorious specimen. The gutsy performance in Game 4 should cement his legacy in the NBA history books. i asked this question before and it seemed silly but I think it’s appropriate to ask again; If Miami wins the NBA Finals, should Dirk still win the MVP trophy? I think so. he’s been that damn good. Can’t really ask for him to do anything more. Okay, maybe he can take more shots. Especially those off-balance-one-legged-bank shots. 

8. Free Throws - I thought free throws would have a larger influence on who won the games. So far, it’s been a toss up. The team that’s taken more free throws is 1 and 3 and the team that’s made more free throws is 2 and 2. Maybe I should change this factor to be the LeBron-effort factor because so far, his lack of drives to the rim are the reason Dallas has been able to edge Miami in free throw shooting and attempts. 

Pivotal Game 5 is tonight, 9:00PM EST on ABC. Tune in to see if Jack Shephard can get the Miami Heat off Dallas Island with a winand don’t forget to follow us on Twitter. 

@Suga_Shane

“No layups!” is a constant refrain in the NBA playoffs, but rarely does it so directly determine the outcome of a game. Jason Kidd may be 38 years old, but he still lives that shit, delivering a double-armed takedown of Wade on a breakaway. Wade couldn’t get the easy two, and then, still shaken by the J-Kidd collision, missed one of his two subsequent free throws. Maybe he thought Kidd was going to throw a cookie at him?

Kidd reached deep for the strength to foul this hard. He thought of his jealousy, when Jim Jackson stole Toni Braxton. He remembered the white-hot rage of Alonzo Mourning when he attacked Kenyon Martin for making fun of his bad kidney. He thought of the stupid face Keith Van Horn made every time he thought he was fouled, and how infuriating that was. But mainly, he remembered growing up on the mean streets boulevards of the Oakland Hills, going to prep school on the hardscrabble island of Alameda, and how it felt during college, when his favorite Berkeley cafe ran out of the organic tabouleh, and he had to eat his falafel with the regular kind. And all that resentment turned into pure aggression that denied Dwyane Wade’s dunk attempt.

THE EAST BAY SAYS “NO LAYUPS!” AND START COMPOSTING ALREADY!

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

(Sean Keane)