As we count down the minutes to tip off, some of the writers have decided to share their thoughts on some key match ups and even predictions for the finals.
Pau Gasol and Rashard Lewis will invariably be matched up defensively for significant stretches this series. Is Gasol chasing Lewis around the perimeter a tougher match up than Lewis trying to check Gasol in the post?
Joe Snake: No. I don’t expect Gasol to chase Rashard around the whole series, either. LA has Ariza, Walton, Bryant, Odom (and even Vujajic) who have the size to bother Lewis’ shot. The Magic have spent more time worrying about Gasol than the Lakers have been spending worrying about Lewis.
Sean Keane: Both guys are going to have trouble, but post defense leads to a lot more foul trouble. Rashard Lewis might well shoot threes over Gasol -or over anyone that guards him - but Game 5 and 6 of the Nuggets series showed that the Lakers offense is nearly unstoppable when it runs through Gasol. Pau will look a lot *sillier* than Rashard on defense, but most of that is due to the floppiness of his hair.
Douglas Reinhardt: Gasol chasing after Lewis is going to be a tougher match up until Phil puts Lamar Odom into the line up.
Orlando was the best three-point shooting team in the league. The Laker defense is designed to deny penetration and force turnovers, at the risk of giving up outside shots. Can Orlando protect the ball and hit enough shots to take advantage?
S.K.: Orlando’s threes are the most crucial element of the series, and their best chance at the upset. Three-point percentage is a highly variable stat, but when a team is at a talent disadvantage like Orlando is, variability is good. By the numbers, the series should be Lakers in 5/6, but one hot shooting half by Pietrus/Rafer/Lee could swing things dramatically. It remains to be seen if Orlando will remember how well their old teammate Trevor Ariza deflects passes.
D.R.: This is what scares me as a Lakers fan. As much as I believe in Phil’s theory that they can’t hit that shot all night long, I believe that the Magic can get hot at the right time and just knock out a string of three pointers and the Magic are in the driver’s seat with Kobe in the rear view mirror. Defense against the three point shot has been the Lakers’ weakness all season long, but betting on the team getting cold is not a solid defense plan.
Which team benefits most from tightly officiated, high-foul games?
S.K.: I’d be extremely surprised if David Stern allowed accumulated technicals to become a factor. While the Polish Hammer has been very effective in the playoffs, Dwight Howard getting in foul trouble would change the series dramatically, so the Lakers don’t mind a lot of whistles. Andrew Bynum will inevitably pick up five fouls in his fifteen minutes, but the Lakers arguably match up better when they go small. Tight officiating primarily helps the Lake Show at the end of the fourth quarter, when Kobe Bryant has proved he can draw fouls at will. In terms of post game press conferences, Phil Jackson is far more entertaining than Van Gundy while lambasting the refs.
D.R.: Getting to the line in the last two games against the Nuggets is what help put in the bag for the Lake show. If they can go to the line and make their shots (the ghost of Shaq & his horrible shot still haunts the team).
Would it be more of an outrage if J.J. Redick or Adam Morrison were to
receive a championship ring?
S.K.: Even though he’s done a lot less than Redick in his pro career, it’s far easier to stomach Adam Morrison getting a ring, though it’s possible Jordan Farmar will steal it from him in the last few seconds. Duke haters, be aware: The Lakers have defeated a Blue Devil in every round so far - Carlos Boozer, Shane Battier, and Dahntay Jones. Can
they complete the sweep and send home the most hated Dukie of all time?
D.R.: I cannot support the idea of Adam Morrison getting a ring for simply sitting on the bench while wearing a Pantera t-shirt underneath his wrinkled dress shirt. I think Morrison has worn the same Orange dress shirt throughout the playoffs.
Will Stan Van Gundy become the first man to coach the NBA Finals wearing just an undershirt under his sport coat?
J.S.: Bet on it. SVG didn’t get this far to squeeze into a regular dress shirt.
S.K: Nothing would surprise me: overalls, Zubaz pants, a ratty old bathrobe, T-shirt tuxedo, game-worn Dennis Scott jersey, and a Members Only jacket are all realistic possibilities.
D.R: I just eagerly await for the story from the local L.A. media about giving Van Gundy a make over. It’s going to happen.
How does the potential return of Jameer Nelson impact the finals? Will Nelson even in limited playing time present the same kind of problem that Aaron Brooks and Deron Williams presented for the Lakers?
S.K.: Nelson would be helpful, as Rafer Alston is their weakest offensive player, and is no threat to go to the rim. It would also help their rebounding if Turkoglu could crash the boards instead of handling the ball. Still, he hasn’t played in a meaningful game in four months. Is a 70% Nelson really more helpful than a 100% Anthony Johnson?
J.S.: If I were the Magic, I wouldn’t mess with a good thing. But, I’m not the Magic and having Jameer return sparks morale and strikes fear and worry into the Lakers, even if he ends up unable to make a real contribution.
D.R.: As long as Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar play solid defense on Nelson, there shouldn’t be a problem for the Lakers.
Will Lamar Odom and his sweet tooth be a factor in this series?
J.S.: Lamar is the lynchpin for the Lakers. If he shows up big, they win. While much has been made about his diet, what about his bad back? Have you ever tried to play with a bad back? It makes you crazy - and wildly inconsistent.
S.K.: Lamar is a very intriguing Finals MVP bet at -2000. The combination of his healing back and Bynum’s inevitable foul trouble means Odom should play starter’s minutes all series. If he can manage his blood sugar accordingly, the Candy Man could be the most important player in this series.
D.R.: As long as Lamar remembers to bring the MDE, he will have the warrior spirit. I really hope Lamar gets a cool commercial out of this series or at least an endorsement deal with Now & Laters.
Will Andrew Bynum live up to his hype and potential or will he come running back to the bench with his tail between after picking up his second foul a few minutes into the game?
S.K: I wouldn’t give up on him long-term, but I fully expect Bynum to jog
to the bench shaking his head right around the 7:45 mark of the first
quarter in nearly every Finals game. He probably won’t foul out, but
only because Phil won’t play him the second half.
D.R.: Bynum is a nervous wreck. He’s scared, but if he could get at least one or two dunks on Howard, all of the cowebs, jitters and nerves may disappear.
What Lakers team is going show up on Thursday? The one that struggled with
Houston or the one from game 5 of the Denver series?
S.K.: I expect the Lakers will be very focused in Game One. Van Gundy makes excellent adjustments, and the Magic are extremely tough, but I’m not sure any team in the NBA can beat the Lakers when they play like they did in Games 5 and 6 on offense.
D.R.: For my own sanity and well being, I hope that the Lakers from the last five quarters shows up.
Who wins it?
J.S.: The popular pick is the Lakers. They have Bryant and also the size to neutralize Orlando’s pair of 6-10 shooters. Bynum and Gasol should be able to limit Howard enough too.
But, I can’t pick against the Magic. Cleveland had them on the ropes in game 1 and game 2, but they are resilient. Stan Van Gundy, for all the Ron Jeremy shots he takes, is a great coach. He kept telling the Magic to get it down to 8, to 6, etc. He kept telling them the Cavs hadn’t been tested like they had. Stan won me over and the Magic won me over with their clutch shots.
Watching them dismantle the Cavs, it felt like Orlando never missed an open three. Howard is a beast (A beast with a head too little for his ginormous shoulders, but a beast still).
Pietrus has attitude. LeBron was going out of his mind on him and he just kept accepting the challenge defensively, then he’d hit another dagger from the corner.
Orlando broke my heart and they’d better win this thing. LeBron walked off the court last series in a huff and I’ve watched the entire Arrested Development series on DVD in the hopes of cheering myself up. These Magic screwed my summer (and possibly the rest of my Cleveland sports watching life). They have no choice but to win it.
S.K: Orlando should not be counted out, but I don’t think they’ll win Game
One in LA. And when Phil Jackson wins Game 1 of a playoff series, his
teams are 44-0. Lakers in seven.
D.R: I just know that I’ll be down about 40 bucks in the swear jar.
